Coronavirus: When will the crisis end and life return to normal?

Coronavirus: When will the crisis end and life return to normal?

The world is in lockdown  Places that were bustling with the hustle and bustle of daily life have become ghost towns after massive restrictions were imposed - from home quarantines and school closures to travel restrictions and bans on public gatherings.

 This came in response to an outbreak of a fatal disease.  But when will the crisis end?  And when we can continue our lives?

 British Prime Minister Boris Johnson believes the UK may "reverse the course" of the outbreak within the next 12 weeks.

 But even if the number of cases begins to decline in the next three months, we will still be far from the end of the crisis.

 It can take a long time to stop the spread of the virus - perhaps years.

 It is clear that the current strategy of isolating large parts of society is not sustainable in the long run, as the social and economic damage will be catastrophic.

 What countries need is an "exit strategy" - that is, a way to lift restrictions and return to normal.

 However, the Corona virus will not disappear.

 And if the restrictions that are hindering the spread of the virus are lifted, the number of cases will inevitably increase.

 Symptoms: Coronavirus: What are its symptoms and how do you protect yourself from it?

 Possibilities of death: Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying from infection?

 Who is most vulnerable?  Coronavirus: Are women and children less likely to contract the disease?

 How does it spread?  Coronavirus: How Do Few People Spread Viruses?

 Mark Woolhouse, professor of epidemiology and infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh, says: "We have a big problem in terms of elimination strategy and how to achieve it."

 It is a great scientific and social challenge.

 There are three main ways to get out of this mess:

 Vaccine development

 Sufficient people develop immunity through infection

 Or permanently changing our behavior / society

 These methods will limit the ability of the virus to spread.

 Vaccine development: at least 12-18 months.

 The vaccine is supposed to give the person immunity so that he does not get sick if exposed to the virus.

 The virus cannot spread if enough people, about 60 percent of the population, are immunized from it, a concept known as "herd immunity."

 The first person got an experimental vaccine in the United States this week, after researchers were allowed to skip the usual rules of doing animal testing first.

 Research is being carried out to develop vaccines at an unprecedented speed, but there is no guarantee that they will succeed.

 The vaccine could be ready after 12 to 18 months, if everything goes smoothly.  This is a long time if we look at the unprecedented social restrictions currently imposed.

 "Waiting for a vaccine should not be considered a strategy, this is not a strategy," Woolhouse told the BBC.

 Image caption

 Coughing is a symptom of COVID-19

 The development of normal immunity - after at least two years

 The UK's short-term strategy is to reduce the number of infections as much as possible to not overwhelm hospitals - when they run out of intensive care beds, deaths will rise.

 Once the cases are contained, this may allow for some measures to be lifted for a while - until cases rise again and then we need a new round of restrictions.

 The UK's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, said, "Setting absolute time limits on things is not possible."

 This could lead to the development of what is known as "herd immunity" as more and more people become infected with the virus.

 But that could take years, according to Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London.

 Ferguson said: "In the end, if we continue that for more than two years, then perhaps a sufficient portion of society at that stage has been infected, providing a certain degree of community protection."

 But there is a question mark as to whether this immunity will last for a long time;  Other corona viruses lead to a very weak immune response, and people can catch the same virus several times in their lives.

 Alternatives - There is no clear endpoint

 "The third option is the permanent changes in our behavior that allow us to maintain low rates of transmission," said Professor Woolhouse.

 This may include maintaining some procedures that have been put in place, or strict testing and isolation of patients to try to contain any outbreaks.

 The development of drugs that treat the Covid-19 virus could help the other strategies succeed.

 These drugs may be used as soon as people show symptoms, in a process called "transmission control" to prevent them from passing the infection on to others.

 And it may be useful in treating patients in hospitals to make the disease less lethal and reduce pressure on intensive care departments.  This will allow countries to deal with more cases before needing to reactivate home quarantine.

 It is also beneficial to increase the capacity of the intensive care units;  This will help deal with a larger outbreak of patients.

 I asked the UK's chief medical advisor, Professor Chris Whitty, what was the exit strategy for the Coronavirus crisis.

 "In the long term, it is clear that the vaccine is one way out of this, and we all hope that it will happen as soon as possible," he replied.

 He expected that "science will find solutions worldwide."